The emergence of significant and long-term economic losses after the global crisis has brought a far-reaching agreement in to the agenda of USA and the EU. If this agreement, planned under the name of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is realized, it will be the largest and most comprehensive bilateral trade agreement in the world, and the common market created by the agreement will reach about one third of the world trade. It is foreseen that TTIP will have significant effects not only on the USA and the EU, but also on third countries through the income/substitution and value chain effects. This study, under the hypothesis that this agreement has entered into force, examines the impact of TTIP on foreign trade of "miscellaneous manufactured articles" sub-industry. The effects of TTIP are revealed by using the panel econometric structural gravity models that allow for counterfactual analysis. The findings pointed out that while there will be a reduction in Turkey's foreign trade with the third group of countries, an increase in foreign trade with the EU, and increase in intra-industry trade with the EU and USA will be realized.
Key words: TTIP Agreement, Structural Gravity Model, Agreement Heterogeneity, Counter-Factual Analysis, Resistance Factors. Jel Codes: F14, F15. Article Language: EnglishTurkish
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