Abstract: Neonatal mortality is the death of children under under one month i.e when a baby dies in the first 28 days of life. Despite the global decline in neonatal mortality rate, prematurity and its complications caused about 25 percent of neonatal deaths and that almost 30 percent of babies born at 23 weeks of pregnancy survive, while about 50 to 60 percent of babies born at 24 weeks and more than 90 percent born at 27 to 28 weeks survive (UNICEF, 2014). Children face the highest risk of dying in their first month of life at an average global rate of 17 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019, down by 52 per cent from 37 deaths per 1,000 in 1990 (UNICEF, 2020). The study employed Time series analysis. It used the data collected from General Hospital Darazo, Bauchi from January 2011 - December 2020. The data was shown is stationary pattern, ARIMA (5,0,5) was choosen as the best model using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and a forecast was made using Gretl statistical software, which showed a steady decrease in Neonatal death rates in 2022, 2023, 2024. The trend of Neonatal Mortality rate over the years, with the highest rate recorded occurring in the year 2021 (very alarming of course). The study therefore calls for greater national priorities on child survival interventions.
Key words: Key words: Neonatal, Mortality, Stationary, Gretl Software, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).
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