Abstract

The most extensive legal reform of Nigeria's oil and gas industry in 60 years is represented by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021. The PIA's provisions for gas commercialization and distribution present a paradox: they aim to maximize gas exploitation as a transition fuel while committing to net-zero aspirations under the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), at a time when global capital markets are increasingly disciplining fossil fuel investments through environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. The alignment, or lack thereof between Nigeria's energy transformation objectives and the PIA's framework for gas processing and distribution is critically examined in this essay. Drawing on a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative analysis of gas flaring data (2010–2025), econometric modeling of domestic gas utilization trends, comparative policy analysis of fiscal regimes, and semi-structured interviews with industry regulators and operators, the study finds significant structural contradictions. Methane leakage, flaring penalties, and the long-term asset stranding risk associated with gas infrastructure investments with 30-year economic lives are not sufficiently addressed by the PIA, even though it introduces fiscal incentives for gas development through the Host Communities Development Trust (HCDT) framework and the unbundling of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). According to the analysis, the present fiscal architecture incentivizes gas-to-power and gas-to-industry pathways without adequately integrating carbon pricing or methane intensity reduction. The article argues that without a fundamental recalibration of the PIA's implementation framework, specifically the introduction of a methane abatement levy, the alignment of gas processing licenses with lifecycle emissions accounting, and the creation of a stranded asset risk management fund, Nigeria risks locking into carbon-intensive infrastructure that will become economically unviable before the end of its technical lifespan.

Key words: Petroleum Industry Act; Gas Processing; Energy Transition; Methane Abatement; Stranded Assets; Nigeria