Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to assess the temporal trends in asthma burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) among children and adolescents in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2050.
Methods: A retrospective observational analysis was conducted using burden estimates for GCC countries. Asthma burden attributable to high BMI was examined by country, sex, age group, and outcome. The main measures included deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends from 1990 to 2023 were summarized. Forecasts to 2050 were obtained from the forecast summary dataset.
Results: Mortality rates attributable to high BMI-related asthma generally declined across GCC countries and remained low in absolute terms, although adolescents aged 15-19 years consistently had the highest death rates. In contrast, YLD and DALY rates increased across most countries, with the steepest rises concentrated in adolescents. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates showed the largest increases in adolescent YLDs and DALYs, while Saudi Arabia retained the highest age-standardized DALY burden in 2023. Females had higher age-standardized YLD and DALY rates than males in all countries in 2023. Forecasts to 2050 indicate persistently low mortality but a sustained disability burden, especially among adolescents aged 15-19 years.
Conclusion: In GCC countries, the burden of high BMI-related asthma in children and adolescents is increasingly driven by disability rather than mortality. Older adolescents, particularly females, bear the greatest burden. These findings have highlighted the need for integrated asthma and obesity prevention strategies targeting adolescents.

Key words: Asthma, high body-mass index, adolescents, Gulf Cooperation Council, disability-adjusted life years