Abstract

Background:
Bovine theileriosis is a tick-borne disease that can lead to economic losses, including in tropical country such as Indonesia. In some regions of Indonesia, cattle is one of the most important commodities which play a role in the sustaining economic flow, including in Jambi Province.

Aim:
This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial distribution, and to make a prediction trends of the disease up to 2027 in Jambi Province, Indonesia.

Methods:
The retrospective data were obtained from active and passive surveillance of Jambi Province and used for calculating the prevalence, with a total of 6,868 cases recorded between 2018 and 2023. Spatial analysis was conducted using R software (version 4.3.1), while time series forecasting was performed using Python on the Google Colab platform.

Results:
The overall prevalence during the study period was 8.07% (554/6868, 95% CI, 7.42–8.71%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s I statistic resulted in a value of 0.17, with a standard deviation of 1.17 and a p-value of 0.12, indicating that the distribution of cases was random across the province. Forecasting analysis suggested that the prevalence is likely to remain stable through 2027, within a projected range of 0% to 10%.

Conclusion:
The current prevalence of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province is relatively low, but the potential risk of disease introduction and spread from other regions remains. Preventive and control strategies are essential to safeguard cattle health and limit the transmission of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province.

Key words: Bovine; Theileria; Tick-borne disease; Spatial analysis; Time series forecasting.