Abstract

Aim: To demonstrate the association between high human population density and high pig production in province of Pinar del Río, Cuba
Materials and Methods: Study of the association between people and swine population is important due to its consequences for animal and public health and the production chain. Records on pig movements at the sub-district level in Pinar del Río province from July 2010 to December 2012 were used in the study. A network analysis was carried out considering the people’s council, the smallest political-administrative structure, as nodes, and movements of pigs between them represented the edges. The in-degree parameter was calculated using R 3.1.3 software. Graphical representation of the network was done with Gephi 0.8.2, and ArcGIS 10.2. was used for the spatial analysis to detect clusters by the Getis-Ord Gi* method and visualize maps as well.
Results: Significant spatial clusters of high values (hot spots) and low values (cold spots) of in-degree were identified. A cluster of high values was located in the central area of the province, and a cluster of low values involving municipalities of the western zone was detected. Logistic regression demonstrated that a higher human population density per district was associated (OR = 16.020, 95% CI: 1.692 to 151.682, p = 0.016) with areas of high pork production.
Conclusion: Hot spots of swine production in Pinar del Río are associated with human densely populated districts, which may suppose a risk of spillover of pathogens able to infect animals and humans. These results can be considered in strategy planning in terms of pork production increases and improvements of sanitary, commercial and economic policies by decision-makers.

Key words: Cluster, Getis-Ord, human population, logistic regression, network analysis, swine population.