There is a concerted effort towards protection of environment as a result of incessant change of climate and its resultant effects on human live and property. Studies have shown that flooding is ranked the most devastating natural disaster in the world; and it is a common natural environmental hazard in various parts of Nigeria. In recent times, flooding has been reported to constitute a major challenge to about 1.5 billion people or 19% of the world population; whereas 70 million people globally exposed to flooding every year while over 800 million people are living in flood-prone areas. The 2022 destructive flooding in River Niger Basin Lokoja Nigeria has attracted attention of experts with a view to curtailing the future reoccurrence. Based on this rationale, this study aimed to determine the trend in the hydrometric dataset and to provide extensive time series analysis of the streamflow in the study area using Modified Thomas Fierring Model (MTFM). In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the dataset for 20 years was sourced from the NIWA (National Inland Waterway Authority) whereby the daily and monthly data was extensively analyzed and the (Thomas Fierring) T-F model the data for the “n” years was divided into 12 sections while the data of each month was re-aggressed to the previous month so that there were 12 linear regressions. Also, MTFM was used to predict the monthly flows from River Niger from 2000 to 2019 so as to compute 36 parameters (12) means (), standard deviations (), and Lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients (r1)). After the estimation of the parameters of the MTFM, the series of historical monthly flows for 20 years were generated. These series were compared with the recorded monthly flows of River Niger for the hydrological period of 20 years (2000-2019), with the use of basic statistical characteristics like mean, standard deviation, maximum, minimum, coefficient of variation, skewness and Kurtosis as shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. The findings revealed that monthly discharge time series of River Niger Basin from 2000 to 2019 are consistent with slightly variation in the trends after modified modified Thomas Fierring Model application; and the study further underscored the relevance of MTFM for analyzing streamflow of River Niger Basin Lokoja. Among others, the study recommended up-to-date hydrometric data of River Niger Basin for optimum control and management of streamflow in the study area; and concluded that up-to-date information in this direction will help future researcher to consolidate on the existing body of knowledge in the field.
Key words: streamflow, hydrometric data, modified Thomas Fierring Model, time series, River Niger Basin Kogi
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