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Original Article

Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2007; 18(64): 1-22


EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Harun TERZİ, Serdar KURT.

Abstract
In this study, whether or not the exchange rate pass-through effect to domestic prices changes in high and low levels of the dollarization in Turkish economy is investigated by using VAR analysis with inflation, exchange rate, money supply, prices of export and import variables for the period of 1995:01-2006:04. In the VAR analysis for 1995-2006, it was fixed a Granger causality from real exchange rate to inflation. The results from sub-periods VAR analysis showed that dollarization important variable for exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices. While level of dollarization is high, exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices is low and vice versa. Results of variance decompositon supported causality relationships from VAR analysis. Results from impulse response fonction conform with VAR and variance decompositon. As a general results, due to different level of dollarization before and after the year 2001, VAR analysis with five variables estimated for the two periods, and it is determined that the exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices has declined for the period of 2001-2006.

Key words: Real Exchange Rates, Inflation, Dollarization, Time Series, VAR.



Article Language: Turkish English



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