In the 1970s, the atmospheric concentrations of the most important greenhouse-gasses (x-K), namely CO2, CH4 and N20, have crossed the maximum values they had ever reached in the past 700,000 years (max700k-y). x-K have now reached values measuring, (max700k-y)i plus (respectively) 1, 3 and 1 times the max. amplitude of each x-K in the 7 major warming/cooling cycles that had occurred in the past 700,000 years. Unless serious measures are soon taken globally, each x-K shall add yet another amplitude to their present levels. The first part of the study summarizes the most important findings of recent research on the subject. There is a very strong correlation between CO2-K and the other x-K; between CO2-K and global average temperatures (T) and the rate of Land-Based Ice Melt (rLBIM) that determines sea-level rise. Further, T follows CO2-K and rLBIM follows T with time lags. IPCC studies conclude that if effective global measures are delayed for another 20-30 years, sea levels shall rise 2-3 meters by the end of this century, flooding all beaches, rendering tens of trillions of dollars worth of real estate worthless and rendering all docks and piers in all harbors useless. This spells financial and economic disaster. However, long before waters rise 1-2 meters, when it becomes certain that this is bound to happen, markets will start discounting the values of all financial institutions and precipitate a downturn, the dimensions of which will far surpass the 2008-2009 crisis. The second part of the paper analyses and speculates on such financial and economic effects and summarizes the measures that must be taken to avoid it. The prognosis is that mankind possesses the necessary scientific knowledge and technical skill to avoid such economic/social/political catastrophes but political-will, global cooperation and large funds are needed and global action must be taken very soon. The material and human costs of the consequences of failure or delay will be immensely high.
Key words: Atmospheric Concentration of Green House Gasses; Global Warming (GW); Measures Needed to Control GW; the Economic and Human Costs Of Failure Or Delay Article Language: EnglishTurkish
|
