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Original Article

Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2011; 22(78): 1-66


Preconditions That May Enable Turkey to Attain an Average Growth Rate of 6.5%-8.0% (Scenarios Encompassing the Next 25 Years and a Discussion of Results Obtained)

Kemal ÇAKMAN, Z. MEHMET BAŞARAN.

Abstract
The minimum annual gross investments including all social-overhead (I)t and investment-ratios (I/GDP)t needed to fulfill the following 5 main targets were calculated for the next 25 years: (i) No new additions to the present number of unemployed. (ii) Agricultural population of 21.5 mln. should decline to about 5.2 mln so as to help narrow the gap between Turkey and EU countries in terms of average productivity of agricultural labor. (iii) (I/ΔL)t --where ΔLt is the annual increase in non-agricultural employment-- should rise at a sufficiently high rate so that Turkey may start catching-up with the EU countries in terms of APL in this sector too and may improve her competitiveness in global markets. (iv & v) Employment-ratios in both sectors should rise substantially from 28% and 32%, respectively to 40% and 45%. For this purpose, 14 columns of data were derived to estimate the annual increase in non-agricultural employment needed (ΔL)t so that “target (i)” may be fulfilled. Then the performance of Spain in terms of (I/ΔL)t increases in the 1999-2007 period was calculated and used to estimate the probable range of (I/ΔL)2030 for Spain, which figures were used to set two alternative (I/ΔL)2030 targets for Turkey. The minimum (It) and the (I/GDP)t necessary for the fulfillment of the aforementioned 5 targets for the 2006-2030 period and were thus derived. The results indicated that Turkey must double her present savings rate and increase her investment-rate to 32%-36% or otherwise is likely to face increasing gaps between herself and EU countries in fundamental macro variables such as productivity, per-capita incomes and risk setting on a route that would seriously reduce the probability that Turkey may continue with her “western oriented” sociocultural development .

Key words: Turkish economy; Scenarios and simulations for the next 25 years. JEL Classification: O10, O41.



Article Language: Turkish English



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