Abstract

Background:
Small-scale broiler farming plays a pivotal role in food security and rural livelihoods in developing countries. However, its performance is commonly evaluated using short-term or cross-sectional data that overlook temporal variability and system potential explanation.

Aim:
This study presents a longitudinal assessment of production and profitability dynamics across 30 consecutive production cycles (2021–2026) in a tropical smallholder broiler system in Indonesia.

Methods:
An integrated analytical framework was applied by combining biological indicators Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR), depletion rate, Average Body Weight (ABW), harvest age, and Performance Index (PI) with economic metrics, including profit and Return on Investment (ROI). Pearson correlation analysis was conducted using SPSS version 26 after normality assessment using the Shapiro–Wilk test.

Results:
The results indicate that the proposed system is technically feasible but highly variable. The average FCR (1.75) and ABW (2.27 kg) reflect acceptable production performance, although the depletion rate (6.47%) exceeds the recommended thresholds, indicating persistent constraints related to environmental stress and flock health. Economically, the enterprise remains profitable on average (IDR 19.62 million per cycle; ROI 8.18%) but exhibits substantial volatility, with several cycles generating financial losses. Pearson correlation analysis showed PI–profit (r = 0.553; PI–ROI: r = 0.563). External factors, such as feed price fluctuations, may contribute to profitability variability; however, climatic variables were not directly measured in this study. A near-perfect correlation between profit and ROI (r = 0.995) confirms the sensitivity of investment efficiency to short-term financial performance.

Conclusion:
The longitudinal approach captures episodic peaks and declines, reflecting temporal variability across production cycles under changing production and market conditions. These findings highlight the need to emphasize improvements in feed efficiency, environmental management, and production stability to stabilize both biological and economic performance in smallholder broiler systems.

Key words: Broiler production; Economic performance; Longitudinal analysis; Tropical smallholder systems.